Application of Exponential Smoothing in Prediction and Dynamic Simulation of Soil Moisture in Forests

CUI Zhe-wei; BI Hua-xing; YUN Lei; TIAN Xiao-ling; JIN Gang-lei

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Application of Exponential Smoothing in Prediction and Dynamic Simulation of Soil Moisture in Forests

- Application of Exponential Smoothing in Prediction and Dynamic Simulation of Soil Moisture in Forests
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 30, Issue 2, Pages: 128-132(2011)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 北京林业大学水土保持学院水土保持与荒漠化防治教育部重点实验室
  2. 山西吉县森林生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站
- 作者简介：
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- DOI：
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- Published：2011
- 稿件说明：
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CUI Zhe-wei, BI Hua-xing, YUN Lei, et al. Application of Exponential Smoothing in Prediction and Dynamic Simulation of Soil Moisture in Forests[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2011, 30(2): 128-132.
DOI：

CUI Zhe-wei, BI Hua-xing, YUN Lei, et al. Application of Exponential Smoothing in Prediction and Dynamic Simulation of Soil Moisture in Forests[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2011, 30(2): 128-132. DOI：

摘要

指数平滑法是广泛应用的基于时间序列进行预测的方法之一

但是目前该方法在土壤水分动态模拟与预测方面的应用较少。采用指数平滑法中的Simple模型

对晋西黄土区人工刺槐林地2009年6月1日至9月30日间每日土壤含水率和土壤蓄水量进行了模拟和预测。结果表明

该模型能够以一定精度对土壤含水率和土壤蓄水量进行模拟和预测;在0—150cm土层内的7个不同观测土层中

随着土层深度的增加

该模型的预测准确性增大。100—150cm土层预测值最大误差<;5%

并且120—150cm土层的预测在7个观测土层中最为准确

其平均误差率仅为0.101 1%。对预测值与实测值进行比较后得出

降雨、蒸发蒸散、地表径流、植物根系吸收等影响因素可能对人工刺槐林地的土壤含水率和土壤蓄水量的影响深度可至120cm。

Abstract

Exponential smoothing based on time series is one of the methods widely used in predicting

but is rarely applied in the dynamic simulation and prediction of soil moisture.In this paper

the simple exponential smoothing was used to simulate and predict daily soil moisture and soil water storage capacity of an artificial locust forest in the loess region of Western Shanxi Province

between June 1st and September 30th

2009.The results show that soil water moisture and soil water storage capacity were simulated and predicted with a reasonable accuracy level.Observations of seven different layers(0—150 cm) indicated that the prediction accuracy of soil moisture increased with soil depth.The maximum error of the predictions within the layer of 100—150 cm was less than five percent

and the most accurate prediction(with an average error of 0.1 %) were found in the layer of 120—150 cm.Compared with the predicted and measured values

it was found that rainfall

evaporation and evapotranspiration

surface runoff

plant uptake and other factors may affect the artificial locust forest soil water moisture and soil water storage capacity up to the depth of 120 cm.

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