Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Shaanxi Province During Past Fifty Years Based on Regression Models
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Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Shaanxi Province During Past Fifty Years Based on Regression Models
Bulletin of Soiland Water ConservationVol. 31, Issue 2, Pages: 114-117(2012)
作者机构:
1. 陕西省气候中心,陕西,西安,710015
2. 武功县气象局,陕西 武功,712200
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Published:2012
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CHENG Xiao-xia, SUN Xian, FANG Jian-gang, et al. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Shaanxi Province During Past Fifty Years Based on Regression Models[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2012, 31(2): 114-117.
DOI:
CHENG Xiao-xia, SUN Xian, FANG Jian-gang, et al. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Shaanxi Province During Past Fifty Years Based on Regression Models[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2012, 31(2): 114-117.DOI:
Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Shaanxi Province During Past Fifty Years Based on Regression Models
Employing the annual mean precipitation and temperature data from 96 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province during the period from 1961 to 2009,and the water resource data published by Chinese Ministry of Water Resources from 1997 to 2006,the impacts of climate change on water resources of Shaanxi Province were analyzed by linear regression,water resource evaluation index,variation coefficient,and water mode. The results show that,the water resource assessment model based on both precipitation and temperature data was more reasonable in evaluation than the one merely based on precipitation data. The climate had become warmer and drier in the past fifty years,the annual mean temperature increases substantially around 1996 and the annual precipitation decreases sharply around 1988. With the declining precipitation and increasing temperature,the water resources had gradually reduced in the past 50 years,and worsened around 1991. The water resources were more than enough before 1990. Since then,the water resources were less than enough with more significant interannual variations. The water resources are limited in drier years. The reduction in natural water supply enhanced the water use efficiency in the living,industrial and agricultural activities and increased the pressure from water supply and demand.
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