Co-integration Analysis on Driving Factors of Construction Land Expansion in Chizhou City,Anhui Province

ZHANG Le-qin; ZHANG He-hua; CHEN Su-Ping; WANG Wen-qin; XU Xin-wang

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Co-integration Analysis on Driving Factors of Construction Land Expansion in Chizhou City,Anhui Province

- Co-integration Analysis on Driving Factors of Construction Land Expansion in Chizhou City,Anhui Province
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 32, Issue 4, Pages: 37-42(2013)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 池州学院资源环境与旅游系,安徽,池州,247000
  2. 华阴市住建局房管所, 陕西华阴,714200
  3. 池州学院经济贸易系,安徽,池州,247000
  4. 池州学院政法管理系,安徽,池州,247000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
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- Published：2013
- 稿件说明：
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ZHANG Le-qin, ZHANG He-hua, CHEN Su-Ping, et al. Co-integration Analysis on Driving Factors of Construction Land Expansion in Chizhou City,Anhui Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2013, 32(4): 37-42.
DOI：

ZHANG Le-qin, ZHANG He-hua, CHEN Su-Ping, et al. Co-integration Analysis on Driving Factors of Construction Land Expansion in Chizhou City,Anhui Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2013, 32(4): 37-42. DOI：

摘要

针对安徽省池州市建设用地快速扩展的现状

依据2000-2011年时间序列数据

运用空间分析模型对建设用地扩展特征进行了动态分析

采用计量经济分析的协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、向量误差修正模型等方法

对建设用地扩展驱动因子进行了定量测度。结果表明:(1)2000-2011年池州市建设用地年平均扩展速率为3.49%

2000-2005年扩展速度为1.70%

2006-2010年扩展速度为4.59%;(2)经济增长、固定资产投资对建设用地扩展存在单向因果关系;(3)长期来看

经济增长、固定资产投资对建设用地扩展的弹性系数分别为-3.663 8和2.264 7

在短期为-0.312 3和0.328 7。表明增长经济总量

提高经济运行质量

控制固定资产投资规模是减缓建设用地扩展重要途径。

Abstract

With the time series data during the period of 2000-2011

dynamic analysis was used with spatial models on expansion characteristics of construction land in Chizhou City

Anhui Province.Co-integration test

Granger causality test and vector error correction model approach in econometric analysis were adopted to quantitatively measure the driving factors of built-up land expansion.The results showed that:(1)Between 2000and 2011

annual average expansion speed of construction land was 3.49%in Chizhou City while it was 1.70% and 4.59%in 2000-2005and 2006-2010respectively;(2)Economic growth and fixed asset investment had an unidirectional causality to construction land expansion;(3)In a long term

the elastic coefficient of economic growth and fixed asset investment to construction land expansion was-3.663 8and 2.264 7respectively;in a short term

it was-0.312 3and 0.328 7respectively

which indicated that the important way to slow down the construction land expansion is to increase total economy

improve the quality of economic operation and control the scale of fixed asset investment.

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Related Institution

School of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics China University of Mining and Technology Xuzhou Jiangsu China

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