Prediction of Water Quality Based on Equal Dimension and New Information Markov Urey Model

YAN Ting-wen; SUN Bao-sheng; ZHANG Ran

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Prediction of Water Quality Based on Equal Dimension and New Information Markov Urey Model

- Prediction of Water Quality Based on Equal Dimension and New Information Markov Urey Model
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 32, Issue 5, Pages: 130-133(2013)
- 作者机构：
  
  天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津,300072
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- Published：2013
- 稿件说明：
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YAN Ting-wen, SUN Bao-sheng, ZHANG Ran. Prediction of Water Quality Based on Equal Dimension and New Information Markov Urey Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2013, 32(5): 130-133.
DOI：

YAN Ting-wen, SUN Bao-sheng, ZHANG Ran. Prediction of Water Quality Based on Equal Dimension and New Information Markov Urey Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2013, 32(5): 130-133. DOI：

摘要

河流水质预测是对河流水环境污染进行分析、控制和治理的基础。基于太湖流域上海市青浦区急水港点位2004-2011年的水质指标COD，NH

N数据，分别建立等维新息灰色预测模型；由于NH

N指标的平均相对误差没有达标，因此利用马尔可夫模型对NH3-N指标的预测结果进行修正，之后应用两种模型分别预测未来几年两项水质指标数值。结果表明，等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型有效地减小了预测结果的平均相对误差，提高了预测精度；未来几年，两项水质指标均呈整体下降趋势，并在一定程度上趋于平缓。但由于太湖流域污染的长期性，其水环境形势依然严峻，应继续采取合理有效的治理措施，如从源头上进行减污，生态清淤，加快转变流域经济发展方式及完善流域管理等，使流域水质得到整体改善。

Abstract

The prediction of water quality is the foundation of the analysis

control and treatment of water pollution.Based on the data of water quality indexes of COD and NH3-N from 2004-2011 at the Jishui water port of Qingpu District

Shanghai City in the Taihu Lake basin

the equal dimension and new information model was established for each index.The mean relative error of the NH3-N index did not meet the standand

so the Markov model was used to improve the predicted values.Then

the future water quality indexes were predicted by the two models.Results show that the equal dimension and new information Markov model effectively reduces the average error of the predicted values and enhances the accuracy of them.In the next few years

the two water quality indexes show a downward trend and tend to be flattened to a certain extent gradually.However

due to the long-term nature of the pollution of the Taihu Lake basin

the water environmental situation remains grim.So

reasonable and effective measures should be taken in a long period of time

such as reducing source pollution

making ecological dredging

accelerating the transformation of economic development mode in the basin and improving the management of the basin.The water quality of the Taihu Lake basin may be overall improved in the future.

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