According to the landuse change data of the city group of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan obtainedfrom 1996to 2008year

the value of ecosystem services(ESV)was calculated using the Costanza methodwith reference to the area of Chinese terrestrial ecosystem service value unit table.Combing sensitive analysis

we evaluated the ecosystem services of the area considering land use changes.We also predicted and analyzed land use changing trends with the gray model(1

1).The results showed that the ecosystem service values of the studied area have reduced from 1.69×109 yuan in 1996to 1.48×109 yuan in 2008.According tothe prediction by the Gray Model

the values of the ecosystem services will be reduced to 1.08×109 yuan in2035.The main reason for regional service value loss is that the conversion of land use types has led to negative ESV flow as cultivated and forest lands and water bodies were converted to construction land.Rapidurbanization and development in pursuit of the high increasing rate of GDP have created enormous pressureon ecological safety.