Health Assessment and Prediction of Taiyuan City Ecosystem

JING Cai-e; ZHANG Fu-ping

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Health Assessment and Prediction of Taiyuan City Ecosystem

- Health Assessment and Prediction of Taiyuan City Ecosystem
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 32, Issue 3, Pages: 280-286(2013)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西,西安,710062
  2. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
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- Published：2013
- 稿件说明：
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JING Cai-e, ZHANG Fu-ping. Health Assessment and Prediction of Taiyuan City Ecosystem[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2013, 32(3): 280-286.
DOI：

JING Cai-e, ZHANG Fu-ping. Health Assessment and Prediction of Taiyuan City Ecosystem[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2013, 32(3): 280-286. DOI：

摘要

为实现对太原市城市生态系统健康水平的评价、预测和科学调控

选取活力、组织结构、恢复力、生态系统服务功能、人群健康状况5个方面构建评价指标体系。运用模糊综合法对2000—2009年太原市城市生态系统健康水平动态变化进行了分析。构建了生态系统健康的灰色预测模型

以实现对太原城市生态系统健康水平的前景预测。结果表明

2000—2009年太原市生态系统健康状况整体呈上升趋势

2000—2006年生态系统健康水平呈现由不健康向临界状态逼近的态势

2007年进入临界状态。研究表明太原市生态系统正在向健康的方向发展。同时

基于灰色预测模型

预测太原市将在2018年生态系统达到较健康水平

2049年生态系统健康达到健康水平。

Abstract

For evaluating

forecasting and regulating the health of Taiyuan City ecosystem

an evaluation system was established

which includes dynamics

organizational structure

resilience

ecosystem services and health status of population.Based on the evaluation system

dynamic change in the health degree of Taiyuan City ecosystem from 2000to 2009was analyzed using fuzzy synthetic method and its grey prediction model was established using grey system theory.Results showed that health degree of Taiyuan City ecosystem rose continuously.Its health status changed from unhealthy state in 2000-2006to critical state in 2007

which indicates that Taiyuan City ecosystem develops to a healthy direction.Furthermore

according to the grey prediction model

the city would achieve relatively healthy status in 2018and healthy status in 2049.

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