Dynamic Change of Virtual Water and Its Prediction in Linfen City of Shanxi Province

LIANG Rui; REN Zhi-yuan; LI Xiao-yan

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Dynamic Change of Virtual Water and Its Prediction in Linfen City of Shanxi Province

- Dynamic Change of Virtual Water and Its Prediction in Linfen City of Shanxi Province
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 32, Issue 4, Pages: 312-316(2013)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 陕西师范大学西北国土资源研究中心,陕西,西安,710062
  2. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西,西安,710062
  3. 陕西理工学院历史文化与旅游学院,陕西,汉中,723000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2013
- 稿件说明：
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LIANG Rui, REN Zhi-yuan, LI Xiao-yan. Dynamic Change of Virtual Water and Its Prediction in Linfen City of Shanxi Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2013, 32(4): 312-316.
DOI：

LIANG Rui, REN Zhi-yuan, LI Xiao-yan. Dynamic Change of Virtual Water and Its Prediction in Linfen City of Shanxi Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2013, 32(4): 312-316. DOI：

摘要

利用居民消费商品实际数量

对山西省临汾市虚拟水消费量进行了计算

并对研究区1985-2010年虚拟水消费量时空变化进行了分析。同时使用回归曲线拟合预测

得出2015年以及2020年的虚拟水消费量。结果显示

临汾市虚拟水消费量在2010年高达6.39×10

人均虚拟水消费量为1 479.27m

。1985-2010年临汾市的虚拟水消费量总体呈上升趋势

各个县域中只有蒲县和大宁县的虚拟水消费量年均增长量为负;空间分布状况为山区县虚拟水消费量年均增长较慢

平川县虚拟水消费量年均增长较快;在此基础上利用GM(1

1)模型对2015和2020年的人口数量进行预测

然后基于回归模型对2015和2020年的虚拟水消费量进行了预测

结果与2010年虚拟水消费量相比均增加的地区有临汾市、霍州市和隰县

与2010年消费量基本持平的有古县

其他县区预测结果均减少。

Abstract

Using the actual residential consumer goods consumption

the paper calculates the virtual water consumption in Linfen City of Shanxi Province and analyzes the spatial-temporal changes of variation of water consumption during 1985-2010.And then regression model was used to predict the virtual water consumption in 2015-2020.The results showed that the virtual water consumption reached at 6.39×109 m3 in total and 1 479.27m3 per capita in 2010.The virtual water consumption showed a increasing trend in the past 26 years with the exception happen in Puxian and Daning County where the average annual growth of virtual water consumption is negative.As for the spatial distribution

the virtual water consumption grew less in mountainous areas than that in flat areas.Using GM (1

1)model the population and then the virtual water consumption of Linfen City in 2015and 2020was predicted.Comparing with data in 2010

the virtual water consumption would increase in Linfen

Huozhou and Xixian County while keep basically flat in Guxian County and decrease in the other counties.

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