ECONOMIC BENEFIT PREDICTION TO BEIZHUANGHE WATERSHED WITH GREY MODEL

Cui Wen-xiu

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ECONOMIC BENEFIT PREDICTION TO BEIZHUANGHE WATERSHED WITH GREY MODEL

- ECONOMIC BENEFIT PREDICTION TO BEIZHUANGHE WATERSHED WITH GREY MODEL
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 6, Issue 3, Pages: 35-40(1987)
- 作者机构：
  
  河北省石家庄地区水利局
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：1987
- 稿件说明：
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Cui Wen-xiu. ECONOMIC BENEFIT PREDICTION TO BEIZHUANGHE WATERSHED WITH GREY MODEL[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 1987, 6(3): 35-40.
DOI：

Cui Wen-xiu. ECONOMIC BENEFIT PREDICTION TO BEIZHUANGHE WATERSHED WITH GREY MODEL[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 1987, 6(3): 35-40. DOI：

摘要

北庄河小流域

经过几年综合治理

水土流失明显减少

生态环境和社会面貌有了巨大变化

1981—1985年纯收入分别为18.38、20.10、31.75、44.67和59.67万元。用灰色系统理论的GM(1

1)模型分析

预测1986—1990年的总经济收入分别为82.12、114.79、160.46、224.31和313.56万元。若无灾害性天气或其他意外盈亏

这个预测是可靠的

效益是令人满意的。

Abstract

Having harnessed comprehensively for years

Beizhuanghe watershed has changed greatly in biological environment and social features

soil loss and erosion have reduced obviously. The total pure incomes (TPI) are 183

800、201

000、317，500、 446

700 and 596

700 yuan respectively from 1981 to 1985. According to the GM(1，1)with grey system theory

it is predicted that the TPI during 1986-1990 will be 0.8212、1.1479、1

6046、2.2431

and 3.1356 million yuan respectively. The prediction results would be reliable and satisfying if no disastrous weather or unforseen inoutcome arised.

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