A dynamic simulation experiment study on the optimization of the construction of agriculture system in Tongwei County Ⅱ—An estimation of the simulation results

Zhang Hanxiong

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A dynamic simulation experiment study on the optimization of the construction of agriculture system in Tongwei County Ⅱ—An estimation of the simulation results

- A dynamic simulation experiment study on the optimization of the construction of agriculture system in Tongwei County Ⅱ—An estimation of the simulation results
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 6, Issue 6, Pages: 19-28(1987)
- 作者机构：
  
  中国科学院西北水土保持研究所
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- Published：1987
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Zhang Hanxiong. A dynamic simulation experiment study on the optimization of the construction of agriculture system in Tongwei County Ⅱ—An estimation of the simulation results[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 1987, 6(6): 19-28.
DOI：

Zhang Hanxiong. A dynamic simulation experiment study on the optimization of the construction of agriculture system in Tongwei County Ⅱ—An estimation of the simulation results[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 1987, 6(6): 19-28. DOI：

摘要

通渭县农业系统仿真模型

通过基本运行的180对仿真数据与前15年的统计数据比较检验

结果表明

模型有效度为85%

可用于预测。该县农业发展的4种选择方案——农主型、林主型、牧主型和综合型

在IBM PC/XT计算机上进行1985—2030年仿真实验。文中分别讨论了几种主要目标——农林牧各业的土地利用面积、产值和粮食总产量在3个发展阶段1990年、2000年和2030年的动态变化趋势。应用多目标模糊评审技术确定了4种方案的最佳选择。从经济效益、生态效益、社会效益和可行性的总体效益权衡

综合型方案最好

可以作为该县农业发展模式。预计到本世纪末和2030年

该方案总产值将分别增加1.56倍和5.54倍。

Abstract

The simulation model on the agriculture system in Tongwei County was checked by the comparing 180 pairs of simulated data in a base-run with statistic data in previous 15 years

the result indicates that the model is an available prediction with an availability of 85%. Four selective developing layouts for agriculture in the county

the crop-leading

the forest-leading

the breeding-leading and the comprehensive developing type wore simulated in IBM PC/XT computer for the period of 1985—2030 year. A dynamic change tendencys of several major objective

the areas of land use and the productive values for crop planting

forest and livestock breeding

and the total yields of crop were separately discussed at three developing steps in the year of 1990

2000 and 2030. An optimum selection of the four layouts was determined utilizing a multi-purpose comprehensive Fuzzy-adjudgment technique. The comprehensive layout is the best one in a general benefit and effect for economic

ecology

social and exercisable respects. Therefore

the layout can be used as an agriculture developing model in the county. By the end of this century and the year of 2030

the predicted values of total product of the layout would increase by 1.56 times. A dynamic simulatijon optimization technique is a useful tool to make a comprehensive agriculture developing plan for a region.

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