The Prediction and control of Sedimentation in Chaohu Lake

Zhu Hugen; Wang Daqi

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The Prediction and control of Sedimentation in Chaohu Lake

- The Prediction and control of Sedimentation in Chaohu Lake
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 10, Issue 4, Pages: 15-19(1991)
- 作者机构：
  
  合肥工业大学,安徽,合肥市
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：1991
- 稿件说明：
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Zhu Hugen, Wang Daqi. The Prediction and control of Sedimentation in Chaohu Lake[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 1991, 10(4): 15-19.
DOI：

Zhu Hugen, Wang Daqi. The Prediction and control of Sedimentation in Chaohu Lake[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 1991, 10(4): 15-19. DOI：

摘要

本文建立了巢湖泥沙淤积序列灰色预测模型GM(1

率先提出GM(1

1)模型的时段长度选取原则。该模型考虑了流域多年水土流失量增加的趋势

使得模拟的精度比非线性回归模型更高

同时预测变量不依赖于其它随机变量

比非线性回归模型更适合于序列预测。最后本文提出了巢湖泥沙防治途径。

Abstract

A serial Grey Modle GM (1.1) for predicting sedimentation in Chaochu lake was established

and also

the principles of seletion of the length periods of GM (1.1) were suggested in this paper.IN considering the increasing tendency of soil erosion in the watershed for years

the model must be made to have a high accuracy than that of the nonlinear regression modeling in sedimentation prediction.Meanwhile

the variables to be predicted can not depend on any other stochastic ones

being more stuible for serial prediction than the non-linear regression modeling.Finally

this paper suggests some ways of controlling sedimentation in Chaohu lake.

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