Situation Analysis of Serious Dry which Occurs Once in Sixty Years and Yield Forecast of Winter Wheat in Changwu Plateau

Dong Daxue; Zhong Liangping; Li Yushan

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Situation Analysis of Serious Dry which Occurs Once in Sixty Years and Yield Forecast of Winter Wheat in Changwu Plateau

- Situation Analysis of Serious Dry which Occurs Once in Sixty Years and Yield Forecast of Winter Wheat in Changwu Plateau
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 12, Issue 5, Pages: 71-77(1993)
- 作者机构：
  
  中国科学院水利部西北水土保持研究所陕西杨陵,712100
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- Published：1993
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Dong Daxue, Zhong Liangping, Li Yushan. Situation Analysis of Serious Dry which Occurs Once in Sixty Years and Yield Forecast of Winter Wheat in Changwu Plateau[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 1993, 12(5): 71-77.
DOI：

Dong Daxue, Zhong Liangping, Li Yushan. Situation Analysis of Serious Dry which Occurs Once in Sixty Years and Yield Forecast of Winter Wheat in Changwu Plateau[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 1993, 12(5): 71-77. DOI：

摘要

通过对长武塬区气象资料的分析

认为1991年在长武塬区及其相似类型区所发生的干旱为六十年一遇的特大干旱。笔者运用“底墒—生育期降雨—产量反应型”对该区域不同立地条件下的翌年冬小麦产量进行预测

结果表明:来年小麦亩产上限为150kg

下限为100kg

较高产年减少55%～70%。

Abstract

By analysed the climate data in Chang-wu plateau

we found that 1991 is the most serious dry year in near sixty years

we also made a yield forecast of winter wheat in the different earth condition with soil moisture-precipitation in growth period yield model，the conclusion is: the highest yield of winter wheat is 150kg/mu，the lowest yield is 100kg/mu

The yield will reduce 55%-70% next year than the year of high yield.

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