Prediction of River Water Quality Based on Gray Dynamic Model Group

LI Ruzhong; WANG Jiaquan; QIAN Jiazhong

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Prediction of River Water Quality Based on Gray Dynamic Model Group

- Prediction of River Water Quality Based on Gray Dynamic Model Group
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 21, Issue 4, Pages: 10-12(2002)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河海大学水文水资源及环境学院,江苏,南京,210098
  2. 合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽,合肥,230009
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2002
- 稿件说明：
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LI Ruzhong, WANG Jiaquan, QIAN Jiazhong. Prediction of River Water Quality Based on Gray Dynamic Model Group[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2002, 21(4): 10-12.
DOI：

LI Ruzhong, WANG Jiaquan, QIAN Jiazhong. Prediction of River Water Quality Based on Gray Dynamic Model Group[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2002, 21(4): 10-12. DOI：

摘要

水质预测是水环境规划、评价和管理工作的基础。依据灰色系统理论

构造了一个由 6个GM(1

1)模型组成的灰色动态模型群

并运用该模型群对淮河干流枯水期氨氮浓度变化趋势进行了预测分析

得到令人满意的结果。研究表明

灰色动态模型群法能够充分利用近期水质资料信息预测未来水质变化趋势;以模型群统计平均值作为最终预测值

避免了单一灰色模型容易利用不稳定信息的缺陷

使得预测精度更加准确

预测结果更为可信。

Abstract

Water quality prediction is the basis of water environmental planning

evaluation and management. A gray dynamic model group is put forward made up of six simple gray models. Then the model group is used to predict the trend of concentration of NH3-N in the Huaihe river during dry season. The result shows that the gray dynamic model group can make full use of the recent information about water quality to predict the future trend of water quality

and that prediction result stemming from gray dynamic model group is more accurate and reliable than that of a simple gray model

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references

夏军.区域水环境及生态环境质量评价--多级灰关联评估理论与应用[M].武汉:武汉水利电力大学出版社,1999.

胥冰,韩小勇.淮河干流水环境评价及其趋势分析[J].水资源保护,1998(2):10-17.

刘兰芬,张祥伟,夏军.河流水环境容量预测方法研究[J].水利学报,1998(7),16-20.

邓聚龙.灰色系统预测与决策[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1985.

傅立.灰色系统理论及其运用[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1992

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